Why did Pedro Sánchez call a snap election?
The announcement came as a surprise, but Sánchez's gambit actually makes sense
As his party faced successive defeats in the local and regional elections, Pedro Sánchez was nowhere to be seen. The Spanish Prime Minister, known for agile political instincts, was in a meeting behind closed doors in La Moncloa, the governmental palace, with a handful of trusted advisors, planning one step ahead. The following morning, Sánchez dropped the bombshell: He was calling a snap election for 23 July.
Politics shifted into warp speed once again. And the rushed decision probably did not foresee some of the collateral damages: journalists shared videos of their colleagues with planned summer breaks banging their heads on tables; civil servants will have a hard time processing the higher number of appeals by citizens trying to get out of working on election day; and older people having to stand in line to vote under the burning sun in southern Spain.
The announcement certainly did not go down well with Àngels Barceló, a radio host at Cadena Ser:
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This early election call also made the life of an independent creator planning a Substack newsletter on the Spanish elections scheduled for December much busier (Ahem, ahem...).
Calling an election only 55 days after one you have just lost is not a wise move at first glance. Granted that Pedro Sánchez is no stranger to risky decision-making, but he is no kamikaze. So, what prompted him to call a snap election?
Let's see why this apparent rolling of the dice makes sense.
1. Better soon than after six months of attrition
By calling a snap election quickly, Pedro Sánchez avoids a six-month campaign in which the right would have portrayed him as a weak leader presiding over a stagnating government. By doing it the morning after the socialists defeat, he caught the right-wing parties off guard, still recovering from their hangovers. He also stole their "honeymoon period" and quickly shifted the public debate.
2. Adding a little pressure to the left flank
The political landscape left of Sánchez is transforming. I will delve deeper into that in future posts, but here are the basics: The elections were a disaster for Podemos and its allies. Lacking the mystical connection with the people that any populist claims to have, their brand is worn out. A new leader from their circles, Yolanda Díaz, emerged into the scene and is creating Sumar, a new platform garnering the support of virtually all leftist parties in Spain, except for (you guessed it...) Podemos.
This left flank will be very important during this election because Pedro Sánchez's path to the renewing his governmen relies heavily on forging a coalition with Sumar and other regional parties. If Sumar and Podemos reach an agreement and do well in the elections, Sánchez still has a chance. But if Podemos and Sumar each present their own candidacies, he will not make it. Hence, by calling the snap election, Sánchez is placing additional pressure on both parties to negotiate a joint candidacy. The clock is ticking for Sumar and Podemos to reach an agreement.
3. Silencing the critics
As we said in the post about the 28 May elections, the PSOE's local leaders are frustrated with Sánchez. They see him and his campaign efforts as instrumental in their defeat. With the general election approaching, any leader who had planned to voice their criticism of Sánchez will likely think twice before doing so.
Interestingly enough, the regional leader who most frequently criticises Sánchez, Emiliano García Page, has won a surprising majority for the socialists in his region, Castilla La Mancha. In his recent media statements, Page is giving masterful lessons in double talk to indicate his dissent with Sánchez without undermining socialist support for the 23 July vote.
4. Vote socialist to stop the far-right
If Feijóo wins, he will most likely need the soport of Vox, the far-right party, to become prime minister (the other possibility is that the socialsits abstain or support him, but it is less likely). Vox would probably demand to join the government as part of any deal struck. This will be crystal clear and present in voters' minds during the campaign in July, as the PP and Vox form alliances to govern their newly won regions and municipalities.
Pedro Sánchez has used this argument before to rally leftist voters—presenting himself as the only one who can stop the far-right. He did so successfully in the two elections of 2019. However, solely relying on this strategy, if this is their plan, might not be sufficient to secure victory this time. Those who are determined to oppose Vox are already mobilised and the PSOE needs to secure voters from the fringes of its voter base to ensure a successful outcome in July.
Rumors and conspiracies
All the reasons above played a role in the decision, but commentators in Spain speculate with others. The below are just rumours and assume that Pedro Sánchez knows he cannot pull off a victory in July and is planning his career beyond the vote. Their credibility is dubious:
Another seat awaits him
According to some media outlets, Sánchez is being considered as the next NATO Secretary General. The rumour even had some traction in the international press and right-wing commentators have leveraged it to their advantage. They argue that Sánchez's decision to call an early vote is motivated by a lack of interest in Spanish politics and has allegedly set his eyes on NATO's top job. Presenting Sánchez as an ambitious and self-serving bureaucrat who prioritises his own interests over the country has become a recurring theme among right-wing media outlets (this one from El Mundo, for example).
Sánchez secretly seeks to destroy the far left
According to this narrative, Sánchez is expecting electoral defeat but will steer the party left during the July campaign to crush the forces left of him. Even if Sánchez lost the election, years of relentless opposition to a PP-VOX government would strengthen the PSOE, preparing the party for a triumphant comeback in 2027. In this narrative, Sánchez's secret agenda would be returning to the comfy days when Spain had single-party majority governments led by PP and PSOE. This is a view expressed by Pablo Iglesias, the former Podemos leader, now turned university professor and political commentator.
Irrespective of the reasons behind the early vote, one thing is clear: The early call to elections caught Sánchez's political opponents off guard. This is especially true for the left-wing parties, Sumar and Unidas Podemos, who now have only ten days to form a united front for the upcoming 23 July elections. We will be covering this next time.
Odds and ends
No time for private English tutors
In an interview, the host asked Alberto Nuñez Feijóo, the leader of the conservative PP party, about his English skills:
Feijóo: My problem is not Spanish or Galician. It's English.
Host: But are you studying it?
Feijóo: I had a teacher and was supposed to start last Monday, but they called an election... Not a problem! The important thing in an international summit, where one brings along a translator, is to know what you are going to say.
Yes, Feijóo really said that. On air! I feel for the guy, as I am leaving my German lessons aside for a while to write this Substack. Life is so often about juggling priorities...
Remember I told you the socialists had released a couple of cringeworthy online videos taking aim at the PP? The second video features the interview above and then shows footage of Sánchez and Ministers speaking fluent English.
Another example of poor campaigning: How will this play with all those Spaniards who don't speak English? If I did not, I would side with Feijóo.